NOTES

(1) Karen J. Terry, Katerina Schuth, & Margaret Leland Smith, “Incidence of Clerical Sexual Abuse Over Time: Changes in Behavior and Seminary Training Between 1950 and 2008,” in Thomas G. Plante and Kathleen McChesney (eds.), Sexual Abuse in the Catholic Church: A Decade of Crisis, 2002-2012 (Santa Barbara, CA: Praeger, 2011), 19.

(2) Peter Steinfels, Notre Dame University 2019 Forum, “Rebuild My Church: Crisis and Response,” September 25, 2019, available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3302cD6bRs.

(3) Ibid.

(4) The John Jay College of Criminal Justice, The Nature and Scope of Sexual Abuse of Minors by Catholic Priests and Deacons in the United States: 1950-2002 (Washington, DC: USCCB, 2004), 6. Available at: http://www.usccb.org/issues-and-action/child-and-youth-protection/upload/the-nature-and-scope-of-sexual-abuse-of-minors-by-catholic-priests-and-deacons-in-the-united-states-1950-2002.pdf.

(5) Ibid.

(6) U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, Criminal Victimization 2014, Revised 2015, 7. Available at: https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cv14.pdf.

(7) Psychologist Dr. Mary Gail Frawley-O’Dea writes, “There are reasonable, literature-based extrapolations that can be made to conclude that the actual number of victims over 60 years is closer to at least 35,000 than 11,000 and that there are priests who perpetrated but were never accused. In addition, priests already accused may well have had more victims who have never come forward.” See Mary Gail Frawley-O’Dea, “The John Jay Study: What It Is and What It Isn’t,” National Catholic Reporter, July 19, 2011, available at: https://www.ncronline.org/news/accountability/john-jay-study-what-it-and-what-it-isnt.

(8) Terry, Schuth, & Leland, “Incidence of Clerical Sexual Abuse Over Time,” 21.

(9) Ibid., 20.

(10) The New York Times reported, “Overall cases of child sexual abuse fell more than 60 percent from 1992 to 2010, according to David Finkelhor, a leading expert on sexual abuse who, with a colleague, Lisa Jones, has tracked the trend. The evidence for this decline comes from a variety of indicators, including national surveys of child abuse and crime victimization, crime statistics compiled by the F.B.I., analyses of data from the National Data Archive on Child Abuse and Neglect and annual surveys of grade school students in Minnesota, all pointing in the same direction.” See Erica Goode, “Researchers See Decline in Child Sexual Abuse Rate,” The New York Times, June 28, 2012, available at https://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/29/us/rate-of-child-sexual-abuse-on-the-decline.html.

(11) As for the remarkable drop in sexual abuse of children since 1992, “the precise reasons for the declining rates are not clear. Dr. Finkelhor noted that most types of crime have plummeted over the last 20 years. But at least some of the decline, he believes, has resulted from greater public awareness, stepped-up prevention efforts, better training and education, specialized policing, the presence in many cities of child advocacy centers that offer a coordinated response to abuse, and the deterrence afforded by the prosecutions of offenders.” See Goode, “Researchers See Decline,” availble at: https://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/29/us/rate-of-child-sexual-abuse-on-the-decline.html.

Specifically with regard to the dropping number of abuse cases in the church, Dr. Frawley-O’Dea explains, “Within the church, the increasing numbers of gay priests, the aging of the priestly population, fewer children actively involved in church activities, increasing caution about allowing children to spend time alone with a priest (for example, on a vacation)—all were likely to contribute to a decrease in sexual abuse by priests. [In the John Jay Causes and Context report], Terry did not discuss these possibilities and seems to overattribute the likely decline of abuse in the church to the hierarchy’s development of better policies, policing, and response strategies. While these factors certainly contributed to decreasing numbers of sexual abuse victims, Terry had an obligation to discuss as fully the lack of a single cause of abuse decline as she did the lack of a single cause of occurrence.” See Frawley-O’Dea, “The John Jay Study,” available at https://www.ncronline.org/news/accountability/john-jay-study-what-it-and-what-it-isnt.

(12) Thomas P. Doyle, A.W.R. Sipe & Patrick J. Wall, Sex, Priests, and Secret Codes: The Catholic Church’s 2,000-Year Paper Trail of Sexual Abuse (Los Angeles, Volt, 2006): ix. Dr. Frawley-O’Dea confirms, “The Catholic church has had a sexual abuse problem with monks and priests since at least the Middle Ages and there have been numerous canonical and policy documents addressing the issue since then, often cautioning secrecy to protect the institution.” See Frawley-O’Dea, “The John Jay Report,” available at: https://www.ncronline.org/news/accountability/john-jay-study-what-it-and-what-it-isnt.

(13) Samuel Laeuchli, Power and Sexuality: The Emergence of Canon Law at the Council of Elvira (Philadelphia: Temple University Press, 1972): 134. Cited in Doyle, Sipe & Wall, Sex, Priests, and Secret Codes, 14.

(14) Juan Carlos Cruz, Notre Dame University 2019 Forum, “Rebuild My Church: Crisis and Response,” September 25, 2019, available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3302cD6bRs.

2. Haven’t numbers of abuse cases dropped dramatically in recent years?

the numbers we know

Absolutely. Reports indicate that the numbers of minors being sexually abused by Catholic priests reached their peak during the period from 1965-1985 and declined significantly by the 1990s. (1) In his remarks at the 2019 Notre Dame Forum on the sexual abuse crisis, Dr. Peter Steinfels made a case for acknowledging the improved numbers: “Anyone who obscures this dramatic drop (as I think the Pennsylvania Grand Jury report did) is simply not telling the truth.” (2) But he quickly went on to remind his audience that keeping the numbers low in the future requires that we understand why the abuse happened—a question that remains still insufficiently explored. And lest these numbers lull us into complacency, Steinfels insisted,

“Statistics like this can be very dangerous. They can blind us to the excruciating, life-derailing devastation caused by a single act of abuse.” (3)

This warning rings all the more clear when we realize that, in the years 1950 to 2002,

just 3.5% of all of the priest abusers were responsible for abusing 26% of all the victims. (4)

That’s 2,960 young people we know of who were victimized by just 149 priests! (5) There is little comfort in knowing that there are fewer abusers among our clergy today than there once were, when a single one of them can cause so much damage. More must still be done. Much more.

the numbers we don’t know

It’s also important to acknowledge that there’s a difference between abuse and reports. In fact, MOST cases of sexual assault NEVER get reported. A 2014 report by the U.S. Department of Justice’s Bureau of Justice Statistics states that only 34.8% of sexual assaults in the United States are reported to authorities. (6) That means there’s roughly two-thirds of sexual assaults about which we will likely never know. So, there’s a good chance that the actual numbers of abuse cases are as much as three times higher than the number of reports would suggest. (7) That’s sobering.

Those people who do report being sexually abused often wait many years before making the abuse known. This is true in American society in general, not just within the Catholic Church. That said, in reviewing the reports of abuse by priests that took place between 1950 and 2002, the John Jay Nature and Scope study found that

“Many victims of abuse would wait 30 or 40 years before making a report.” (8)

You’ve undoubtedly heard that many state legislatures are in the process of extending or eliminating the statutes of limitations for sex crimes against minors. This is the rationale: Sexual assault victims often do not report their abuse for many, many years.

The John Jay Nature and Scope study showed that no fewer than 11,000 abuse cases occurred between 1950 and 1985 (and, as noted above, there were likely many more); but by 1985, only 840 reports had been made. (9) That’s just 7.6%. The rest of the reports came many years later.

So, while it seems clear that the numbers of clergy abuse cases have decreased precipitously in recent years, it may be many years before we know for sure just how much they’ve really dropped.

It’s also worth noting that, during the quarter-century since 1992 (i.e., during roughly the same period as the church was seeing a drop in cases of abuse by clergy), American society in general saw sexual assaults drop by more than half. (10) It’s not really possible, therefore, to say just how much of the drop in clergy sexual abuse can be directly attributed to the success of the church’s own efforts. (11)

The Catholic Church has taken aggressive steps to reduce sexual abuse by its clergy. Of this there can be no doubt. But before getting too comfortable with the numbers, it’s important to acknowledge just how much we still don’t know.

The numbers we ignore

Sexual abuse of minors by Catholic clergy may have peaked in the 1960s through the 1980s, but it didn’t start then and it didn’t end then. In reality, clergy sexual abuse of minors is neither a recent nor a local phenomenon. It has been

“an open wound on the Body of Christ for as far back as records are kept.” (12)

As early as AD 309, the church’s Council of Elvira found it necessary to prescribe ecclesiastical sanctions for men who sexually abuse boys. (13) Social, cultural, and historical factors may explain the dramatic rise in clergy abuse cases in the 1960s, 70s, and 80s, but those factors don’t explain why the abuse of minors by the clergy who were supposed to care for them has existed throughout the church, across social and cultural contexts, for so long. There’s much we still have to learn

So, it’s not a recent problem. It’s also not just an American problem. For the Catholic Church, sexual abuse is an ongoing global problem.

Juan Carlos Cruz is the abuse survivor who is credited with changing Pope Francis’s mind on the abuse situation in Chile. Speaking at Notre Dame’s 2019 Forum, he offered this stark reminder:

“In Chile, Peru, India, the Philippines, the numbers are going up, not down. This is only the tip of the iceberg.” (14)

toward complacency or courage

Numbers and statistics can be treacherous things. They can be spun to tell whatever story we choose. Viewed from one perspective, the apparent drop in numbers from their peak decades ago can give us cause for complacency—after all, the problem used to be much worse. Viewed from another perspective, the drop in numbers can give us the courage to plough ahead, confident that efforts to understand clergy sexual abuse really can make a difference. The Dulles Research Institute is committed to the latter viewpoint, working for a better future.